The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the extension of the conflict, the reaction of the West, the still uncertain position of China, have and will have disruptive impacts on an already complex international scenario. In a hard-hit world, emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and in a context where the fight against global hunger has shown a setback in recent years, concerns about food security are increasing, particularly in the many countries that depend, fundamentally, on imports to feed their populations.
From the point of view of agri-food trade (among other issues), concerns about the immediate effects of this war are logical. The conflict occurs in a market that was already in a situation of tightness between supply and demand, due to a combination of factors, including the extraordinary growth in Chinese demand and poor harvests due to adverse weather conditions in producer countries, which reduced stocks worldwide and, together with disruptions in supply chains, resulted in a large increase in the international prices of agricultural commodities.